Strategi Tata Guna Lahan Berbasis Stok Karbon untuk Pembangunan Berkelanjutan di Kota Balikpapan: Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dengan Land Change Modeler dan Analisis Skenario

Fadel Ghulam Fajri

doi:10.53686/jp.v15i1.288

Authors

Fadel Ghulam Fajri Pengelola Pertanahan, Kantor Pertanahan Kota Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53686/jp.v15i1.288

Keywords:

Stok Karbon, Tata Guna Lahan,, Land Change Modeler, Pembangunan Berkelanjutan

Abstract

The growth of Balikpapan City as a pillar of the development of the Indonesian Capital City (IKN) has placed significant pressure on land use and carbon stocks. This study aims to develop a carbon stock-based land use strategy to support sustainable development. The methods used include spatial modeling with the Land Change Modeler (LCM) to predict land use changes in 2024 and 2030 and carbon stock calculations using InVEST. The analysis was conducted on two scenarios: a baseline scenario and a Protected Forest Areas (PFA) scenario. The results indicate that the conversion of shrubs and agriculture to built-up areas predominantly occurs in North and South Balikpapan, while East Balikpapan still contains forests and mangroves, which are important carbon sinks. In the baseline scenario, carbon stocks experienced a significant decline due to uncontrolled urbanization. In contrast, the PFA scenario was able to maintain and even increase carbon stocks, particularly through the protection of forests and mangroves in the eastern part of the city. Therefore, Balikpapan's development will only be sustainable if conservation-based spatial planning policies are consistently implemented through the protection of protected areas, strict monitoring, and incentive support towards a low-carbon city.

Pertumbuhan Kota Balikpapan sebagai penopang pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) menimbulkan tekanan besar terhadap penggunaan lahan dan cadangan karbon. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan strategi tata guna lahan berbasis stok karbon untuk mendukung pembangunan berkelanjutan. Metode yang digunakan mencakup pemodelan spasial dengan Land Change Modeler (LCM) untuk memprediksi perubahan penggunaan lahan tahun 2024 dan 2030, serta perhitungan stok karbon menggunakan InVEST. Analisis dilakukan pada dua skenario: skenario dasar dan Protecting Forest Areas (PFA). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konversi semak dan pertanian menjadi lahan terbangun dominan terjadi di Balikpapan Utara dan Selatan, sedangkan Balikpapan Timur masih menyimpan hutan dan mangrove yang penting sebagai penyerap karbon. Pada skenario dasar, stok karbon mengalami penurunan signifikan akibat urbanisasi yang tidak terkendali. Sebaliknya, skenario PFA mampu mempertahankan hingga meningkatkan stok karbon, terutama melalui perlindungan hutan dan mangrove di kawasan timur kota. Dengan demikian, pembangunan Balikpapan hanya akan berkelanjutan apabila kebijakan tata ruang berbasis konservasi dijalankan secara konsisten melalui perlindungan kawasan lindung, pengawasan ketat, dan dukungan insentif menuju kota rendah karbon.

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